Nadin Argañaraz, director of IARAF
The collection of national taxes for the third month of the year was $ 328 billion, which represents a variation of 37.3% at current values, which represent a fall of 10.2% in real terms.
It is worth remembering that during the first two months of the year the collection showed a year-on-year drop of 7.1%, so the new data shows that the first quarter ended up showing a negative variation of 8.1% in real terms compared to the first quarter of 2018.
The main determinants of this evolution were the acceleration of the fall in real terms of taxes such as Profits and Social Security. Profits, which during the first two months of the year had fallen only to 0.7% real, in March registered a negative variation of 18.2%, which dragged the entire quarter to show a real drop of 6.5%. Some of this will probably be reversed next month when the advance of human persons enters last year’s impact in March, raising the base of comparison. Social security taxes (contributions and contributions) fell by 16.7% in real terms in March, thus rounding off a real drop of 14.7% in the accumulated first quarter.
Looking to the end of the year and the objective of primary balance of the national public sector, it is relevant a differentiated analysis of what is being recorded in contrast to what was budgeted, taking into account the recipients of each of the collections. Specifically, in terms of non-co-participable resources, that is, those whose collection remains in the national sphere such as contributions and contributions to social security and export and import rights, there is a negative deviation from the budgeted in the Social security resources equal to 2.2%, but in the case of foreign trade taxes, the deviation is practically one third. In other words, despite the high year-to-year real growth observed in the first quarter in export retentions, for example, which leads one to think intuitively of a high income flow for the year, the relevant data that emerges is the contrast with what is projected to be collected according to the budget, in which case it is observed that the effective collection comes below the objective.
The case of co-participable taxes is the opposite, since they have been performing better than expected according to the budget, however these extra resources must be shared with the provinces through co-participation.
In the aggregate, the collection that remains in the hands of the National Treasury presents a negative deviation from what was expected to meet the budget, and therefore with the objective of primary fiscal balance.